Crazy Fluctuations! Rising and Falling! Economic Slowdown Across Multiple Fronts! When Will Steel Prices Rise?

On the 2nd, the White House announced additional tariffs on Chinese products, including port cranes, which will now be subject to a 25% tariff rate, having been previously exempt. This move has sparked widespread opposition from ports across the United States.

Current steel mill profits are poor, and some mills are planning blast furnace maintenance, which is expected to significantly hinder the upward trend in mineral prices in the short term. Profitability of imported minerals is likely to remain weak and stable.

PART 01 Industry News and Analysis

01 More than 80% of property companies have seen their market value decline.

According to China Real Estate News, in the first half of 2024, only 14 real estate companies among the top 100 by market value saw an increase in their total market value, while 86 saw a decrease, accounting for over 80%.

Analyst Insight: Starting from 2021, private real estate developers experienced a阶段性 capital crisis, with listed real estate companies witnessing a decline in market value. Following the implementation of policies, there may be a catalyst for improvement in the capital and end-demand issues of real estate developers, with attention to their fundamental performance.

02 June heavy truck sales dropped by 14%.

According to Commercial Vehicle Net, in June, the sales of heavy-duty trucks in our country were approximately 74,000 units (inclusive of exports and new energy vehicles), down 5% month-on-month and 14% year-on-year from the 86.5 thousand units in the same month last year.

Analyst Perspective: Amid the June low consumption season, dealers are launching promotional activities to meet their half-year sales targets, compounded by the hot and rainy July weather, which continues to affect heavy truck sales. Most automakers' full-year sales targets are less than 40% completed, negatively impacting steel demand and consumption.

03 The U.S. economy is slowing down across multiple dimensions.

The U.S. economy's growth rate slowed down in the first half of the year, with quarterly personal consumption increasing by 1.5%. Orders and shipments for specific corporate equipment declined, the trade deficit reached its highest level in two years, the job market weakened, and housing activity decreased.

Analysts' Perspective: The slowdown in the overseas economy is attributed to the diminishing expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, dropping from an initial forecast of 5-6 cuts to just 1-2. Market expectations of spontaneous tightening are weighing on the economy, leading to a stressed liquidity environment and negative impacts on the trajectory of commodities.

PART 02 Market Overview

Steel Mill Price Adjustment: Strongly Performing

July 2nd, According to the data from the China Iron and Steel Information Institute (WeChat Official Account: China Iron and Steel Network), a total of 19 steel mills adjusted their prices today, including:

Increased by 12, accounting for 63%, with a price adjustment of 20-30 yuan/ton.

Seven firms are on par, accounting for 37%.

PART 03 Futures & Billet Market Dynamics

On July 2nd, the black series experienced high volatility, with rebar closing at 3,562 yuan, up 13 yuan; hot rolled coil at 3,757 yuan, up 7 yuan; coking coal at 1,612 yuan, up 29 yuan; coke at 2,313.5 yuan, up 36.5 yuan; and iron ore at 843 yuan, up 12 yuan.

July 2nd, certain general billet resources in Qian'an, Tangshan, stabilized at 3,310 yuan per ton, including tax, for factory delivery.

July 2nd, Main Stability Adjustment (Zhonggangwang's Large Database)

PART 04 Steel Price Forecast

The black plate market is experiencing low-vibration fluctuations, with most spot steel prices holding steady, with limited fluctuations in both upward and downward trends. The off-season for steel consumption has deepened, with little improvement in demand, and the weak trading situation is unlikely to change. The market is primarily dominated by the circulation of low-priced resources. The trend continues with fluctuating adjustments.Steel prices are expected to remain stable or slightly decline today.